Why haven’t we not encounter aliens? How to resolve this paradox by treating the parameters of the Drake Equation as uncertain — an example of Sam Savage’s Flaw of Averages.
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Category Posts
Is the Fermi Paradox due to the Flaw of Averages?
Behind the scenes: 5.3 color themes
Ben here to tell you about my first large project at Lumina — developing new color schemes for the Analytica 5.3 release. One of our primary goals was improving the look and feel…
Book review: decision making under uncertainty
This just-released Spanish-language textbook from Professor Jorge E Muro Arbulú has now taken its spot as my favorite textbook on …
An Analytica advantage over MATLAB
I’m working on a model translation project for the California Energy Commission, going from MATLAB to Analytica. The transportation system model I’m working…
Plotting over a Google Map
Here is how to display your geographic data on a Google map background.
An optimal Valentine’s date
“You know, Valentine’s Day reminds me of the optimal stopping problem.” Not sure if this phrase was uttered elsewhere, but, this is the sort of water cooler conversations…
How to update y = m x + b with new data
Abstract: Bayesian linear regression made super easy and intuitive! You arrive in a new city for the first time, and you’ll …
What to do when your model results are ridiculous?
When an exhaustive scrutiny of the model code, the data and more sensitivity analyses don’t reveal why your model isn’t working, you must consider that perhaps it’s your intuition…