The COVID-19 pandemic has given many people a crash course in the frightening implications of rapid exponential growth in cases and deaths – what some people call “J-curves”…
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The Suppression Triangle for COVID-19: How soon can we end the lockdown?
A critique of the HealthData.org COVID-19 model, and how it works
On 26-March-2020, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington published their first COVID-19 forecast [IMHE20a]…
Suppression strategy and updated forecast for US deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020
Two weeks ago in the article “Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020” [C20b], I developed a probabilistic forecast for the number of people in the US who will …
How social isolation impacts COVID-19 spread in the US: A Markov model approach
On Monday of this week, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team released an influential report that forecasts how social isolation measures for mitigation and suppression…
Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020
In this posting, I am taking on the morbid challenge of forecasting how many people in the US will die from the COVID-19 coronavirus in the year 2020.
The mortality rate of the Wuhan coronavirus
It has only been about a month since the new strain of a coronavirus appeared in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Yet it seems that the rapid growth of confirmed cases…
Greenhouse gas emissions and energy expenditure from Santa’s global tour
In late December, Santa Claus will embark on his annual Christmas eve ritual, delivering presents to the good little boys and girls around the world. In this article, I look at the…
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Max Henrion has 25 years experience as a researcher, educator, software designer, conslutant & entrepeneur, specializing in the design & effective use of decision technologies. He is the Founder & CEO of Lumina Decision Systems.