Risk & uncertainty
From its inception, Analytica was designed to analyze risk and uncertainty — unlike spreadsheet applications which require special add-ins. Analytica’s fully integrated features for sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation make it remarkably simple to treat risk and uncertainty in your models. Here are some examples of how organizations are using these methods.
Flood risk management in Ho Chi Minh city
After a devastating flood in Ho Chi Minh City, the World Bank used Analytica to develop a robust strategy to help the city manage and reduce risks of future flooding.
Earthquake insurance: cost-effective modeling
An analysis of earthquake scenarios and insurance rates helped a San Francisco county optimize insurance premiums and move toward a long-term risk management strategy.
Integrated assessment of climate change
The Integrated Climate Assessment Model (ICAM) has generated a wide range of valuable insights into how to adapt to global climate change.
Is the Fermi Paradox due to the Flaw of Averages?
Why haven't we not encounter aliens? How to resolve this paradox by treating the parameters of the Drake Equation as uncertain -- an example of Sam Savage's Flaw of Averages.
Pi Day comparison: Monte Carlo vs Latin hypercube vs Sobol sampling
This blog will be visiting the dart-throwing method of estimating π and comparing how fast or slow different sampling techniques converge to the actual value of π. The sampling techniques…
Book review: decision making under uncertainty
This just-released Spanish-language textbook from Professor Jorge E Muro Arbulú has now taken its spot as my favorite textbook on …
Testing hypotheses about causation
In 2002, I developed a statistical framework for testing whether your data provides statistically significant support for the hypothesis that A causes B. I published only one...
How the strange Cauchy distribution proved useful
On Tuesday I had an interesting exchange with Jorge Muro Arbulú, a professor in Peru, about the Cauchy distribution, which also called the Lorenzian distribution.
Some Analytica customers
