Wherein lies the uncertainty with experts – in the situation that is being assessed or in the assessment itself? Expert elicitation and probability assessment can be a useful …
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Expert elicitation & probability assessment through treatment of Uncertainty
Monte Carlo analysis goes mainstream with women’s tennis
You know something has entered the realms of popular culture when everybody speaks about it in the same breath as Hollywood blockbusters, their tax bills or smartphones. Well, OK…
Definition of risk management & damage to reputation
Risk to reputation is recognized as a concept. In commercial terms, the reputation of an enterprise influences the loyalty of its customers, the prices they are prepared to pay, …
Financial modeling & the speculator with deep pockets
In the financial modeling of global business, the perfect market is well-known paradigm. This is a market in which buyers and sellers have full information about the good or …
Risk assessment: is limitation the only way to a normal life?
Has risk become too much of an obsession? It’s difficult to condemn people for being meticulous, maniacal even, when it comes to assessing risks concerning health and safety.
Multi-attribute decision analysis & the fun of fuzzy
Between the fuzzy sets of Lotfi Asker Zadeh and the fuzzy math of George W. Bush, what precisely are the implications for multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA)? First of all, …
Pharmaceutical analysis for better medications
Notwithstanding that Monte Carlo methods were first invented for atomic physics (bombs) and that pharmaceutics operates close by at a molecular level, the more popular application …
Business impact analysis for disaster recovery planning & beyond
Business impact analysis (BIA) is a stage in the disaster recovery planning process, in which organizations seek to prepare for business interruptions with a plan to surmount …